PHAILIN Cyclone Update @ 6.00 PM on 12th October 2013

(Image from Cyclone Tracker at 5.40 PM)

Ground fall may be between 6 to 8 PM. Wind speed at Puri is about 120 kmph. Paradeep - Sea has gushed in to about 200 meters.

About 80 kms off Gopalpur now.

Some people in Paradeep still reluctant to vacate their homes.  They fear the administration will not be able to guard their belongings from theft.  Govt. officials say they are trying to evacuate using police force.

 One casualty of human life.  A woman dies as a tree branch falls.

Rains also in west Odisha districts.  WESCO resorts to power cut even before heavy rain and high wind speed comes.

Even though Hirakud flood gates have released a lot of water, the dam is still at an unsafe level.  The predicted rains in Chhatisgarh may spell doom for the dam.  

The Mahanadi delta is already waterlogged.  Drains in Cuttack full and congested.

Police has said it cannot take responsibility of protection of the lavish and costly puja mandaps in Cuttack and Bhubaneswar.  

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IMD Projections at 3.00 PM

The very severe cyclonic storm, PHAILIN over westcentral & adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal moved north-northwestwards during past 3 hours with a speed of 20 kmph and lay centred at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 12thth October 2013 over westcentral & adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 18.60 0 N and longitude 85.40 0 E, about 90 km southeast of Gopalpur. It would move northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts close to Gopalpur (Odisha) during 6-8 P.M. of today i.e. the 12thth October, 2013 as a very severe cyclonic storm with a maximum sustained wind speed of 210-220 kmph gusting to 240 kmph.

Warning for Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal

(i)Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥ 25 cm) would occur over Odisha and north coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 48 hrs. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over coastal areas of West Bengal commencing from afternoon of today i.e. the 12thth October.

(ii)Gale wind: Gale winds speed reaching 210-220 kmph gusting to 235 along and off coastal districts of north coastal Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha would prevail at the time of landfall. State of Sea along and off Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coast will be phenomenal. It will be rough to very rough along and off West Bengal coast during the above period.

(iii)Storm Surge Guidance: Storm surge with height of 3.0 to 3.5 metre. above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha and Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh during landfall.

(iii)Storm Surge Guidance: Storm surge with height of 3.0 to 3.5 metre. above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha and Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh during landfall.

(iv)Damage expected over Odisha and adjoining north Andhra Pradesh: Extensive damage to kutcha houses. Some damage to old buildings. Large scale disruption of power and communication lines. Disruption of rail and road traffic due to extensive flooding. Potential threat from flying debris. Flooding of escape routes. Extensive damage to agricultural crops.

Post landfall outlook:

 Even after landfall the system is likely to maintain the intensity of very severe cyclonic storm for 6 hours and gradually weaken into a cyclonic storm in subsequent 6 hours while moving northwestwards across interior Odisha. Under its influence rainfall at most places with heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls at isolated places would occur over Odisha. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would also occur over north coastal Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand. Squally wind speed reaching 100-120 kmph would also prevail for 6 hours and 60-70 for subsequent 6 hours over Odisha during the same period.