Showing posts with label Disasters - Cyclones. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Disasters - Cyclones. Show all posts

Monday, October 15, 2018

Titli Update: Storms and aftermath - pollution of the Sea - Ranjan Panda


(Image: FB page of Special Relief Commissioner, Odisha)


The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm "Titli" has done a lot of damage to Odisha coasts, with high speed wind and the extreme rainfall that followed.  Titli crossed the coast near Palasa in Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh to the southwest of Gopalpur with estimated maximum sustained surface wind speed of 140-150 kmph gusting to 165 kmph between 0430 and 0530 hours IST of 11th October 2018.

Like the Phailin in the same time of the year, back in 2013, the rainfall in the aftermath caused floods and other devastation that the government had not anticipated well.  About 24 human deaths and more than 24000 livestock casualty recorded so far.  The actual figure may be more.  There is no estimate available for the casualty suffered by wildlife. A television news channel report this morning showed how elephants were being washed away due to heavy floods in Mahanadi but I could not confirm the details as yet. 

The heavy downpour that followed the landfall of Titli flooded the Rushikulya and Vanshadhara rivers affecting 16 districts of Odisha.  As per reports shared by the Special Relief Commissioner of the state, more than 5.7 million people in 7229 villages of these districts have been affected by the rainfall and the floods.  Agriculture in these villages has received a heavy jolt as more than 2.3 hundred thousand hectare of crop fields have been damaged.    

Going beyond politics, some real questions need to be asked -

Odisha's opposition parties are already criticising the state government for not being able to keep its promise of 'zero casualty' but the government seems to have given more attention to the relief and rehabilitation works, rightly so. 

The political debate will not settle soon. We will all participate in that, to understand where the failure lay and how to change our plans in future. Did the weatherman fail in proper predictions of the aftermath? Did the government fail to gauge the gravity of the predictions?  Did the local administration not act in line with the Disaster Management Plan? Did the local Disaster Management Committees (supposed to have been formed and trained by the government and other agencies) failed in carrying out the due procedures?  All these questions will haunt the state of Odisha that's currently engaged in relief and preliminary rehabilitation efforts.

The Debris that go into the sea –

In this post I am trying to flag an important issue that is normally not discussed as a major issue in such storm stroke aftermaths.  I am talking about the debris that is washed away from the inlands to the sea.  Today morning Himanshu Thakkar of SANDRP twitted to me a video https://youtu.be/9wazyFvJZbU that shows how the mouth of Rushikulya river has received loads of garbage and other debris due to Titli and floods. 

(Image: Screen shot of YouTube Video by Times of India)

We often forget that our rivers are carriers of all our wastes into the sea throughout the year, more so during the monsoon months.  Disasters such as this add to the force of the water that go into the sea and bring along more of our wastes into the sea.  Earlier I have already written extensively how plastic pollution of the sea is causing huge damage to the oceans as well the earth.  http://bit.ly/2QRjOEB

(Image: Screenshot from my article published in www.sixdegreesnews.org)

Time our disaster planning factors in these menaces along with other damages being done.  Climate change is already causing more storms and aggravating the damages.  Some studies point out that the frequency of storms in the Bay of Bengal is increasing, more than any other bay, due to climate change. 

We need to combine our brains on this and have more discussions, studies and action plans. 


Ranjan Panda

Convenor, Combat Climate Change Network, India

Skype: ranjan.climatecrusader

Tweets @ranjanpanda
Tweets @MahanadiRiver  

Thursday, October 11, 2018

8 killed in AP: Severe Cyclone Titli update

Severe #CycloneTitli updates!

https://m.hindustantimes.com/india-news/eight-killed-lakhs-without-power-as-cyclone-titli-slams-andhra-odisha/story-8bBZjpA2VrzU4hC6nOuE1N_amp.html?__twitter_impression=true

Sunday, October 12, 2014

HUDHUD Update: The cyclone goes beyond coasts, but intellectuals stay narrow and biased!

It's really sad that many so called 'chinta nayaks' at Bhubaneswar have been repeating in TV channels that Odisha has not been affected much by HUDHUD. For them the tribal districts don't count at all. The severity of the cyclone may have been less than expected and compared to the previous one, but the loss to poor people including tribal communities, farmers and fisher folks has been substantial. And please note that communities who had never faced cyclone in life have been exposed to it in Koraput, Malkangiri and nearby areas. The trauma is huge. When HUDHUD has not restricted it to the coasts, why are these people limited to that region only. Time this bias is shunned and genuine sense prevailed...

HUDHUD Tweets: How vegetables have taken over role of birds!

Earlier the birds sensed a cyclone. These days, potatoes and onions have taken over. The birds flew away to haven. The vegetables get inaccessible to the common people...

HUDHUD Tweets: Housing needs a new thinking

The poor have lost their houses, the rich their glasses.  Housing needs a whole new thinking for sure...

HUDHUD to cross Odisha between 9.30 to10.00 PM on 12th Oct 2014

HUDHUD to cross Odisha between 9.30 to 10.00 PM tonite.  Koraput and Malkangiri to be hit by wind speed of 60-70 kmph and heavy rainfall.  Please stay watchful and prepared!

HUDHUD Tweets: Vansadhara & Rushikulya rivers may experience floods by midnite!

Vansadhara and Rushikulya rivers are nearing danger marks. We may experience floods by midnite or tomorrow morning...

HUDHUD Latest Update @ 5.00 PM IST, 12th October 2014


Latest Imagery of HUDHUD

In Brief:

5 people killed so far in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha. Chief Minister of tells PM to declare HUDHUD a national calamity.     (http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/live-cyclone-hudhud-visakhapatnam-andhra-pradesh-odisha-evacuation/1/395343.html)

At the moment the cyclone wind speed has reduced to about 160 kmph and will reduce further.  But low pressure rainfall will continue on 13th, 14th and 15th October.  After midnight today it may start moving and cause rainfall in Jharkhand, Chhatisgarh, East MP, East UP, Bihar and West Bengal. 

Almost all Odisha districts are under cloud.  Rainfall and mild wind in most of the districts.  However, eight Southern districts in Odisha will experience heavy rainfall and high speed winds in coming hours.  Districts like Malkangiri, Koraput, Rayagada, Kalahandi, Nabarangpur, Kandhamal, Ganjam and Gajapati districts.  Heavy rainfall to continue in these districts for the next 24 hours and more.  Even some districts of North Odisha as well will experience isolated rainfall.

Electricity and water connections have been cut in almost all the affected districts.  Power generation has been stopped in Machakund.

Gopalpur sea is wild at the moment and stand storm is at its peak with heavy but intermittent rainfall.   

In Pentha of Rajnagar area in Kendrapada sea has surged by 50-100 feet.  The sea is now at about 20 feet from the village and lot of houses have already been damaged.  Similar fate has been reported from Satabhaya in the same district.

Thousands of trees have been uprooted in Koraput's Pottangi block.  Heavy rainfall is making life difficult in Gajapati's Mohana Block.  Similar reports are coming in from other areas.

12.30 IST Bulletin of IMD on the Status of the Cyclone and Post Landfall Outlook:

The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘HUDHUD’ over westcentral Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestwards with a speed of about 15 kmph during the last 06 hours and lay centered at 1130 hours IST of 12th October 2014 near latitude 17.6ºN and longitude 83.2ºE, close to Visakhapatnam. The system is crossing the coast.

Heavy rainfall warning: Under the influence of the system, rainfall at most places with heavy (6.5–12.4 cm) to very heavy falls (12.5–24.4 cm) at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥ 24.5 cm) would occur over west & east Godavari, Visakhapatnam, Vijayanagaram & Srikakulam districts of north Andhra Pradesh and Ganjam, Gajapati, Koraput, Rayagada, Nabarangpur, Malkangiri, Kalahandi, Phulbani districts of south Odisha during next 48 hrs. Rainfall would occur at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Krishna, Guntur & Prakasham districts of Andhra Pradesh and north coastal Odisha during the same period.

Wind warning: Gale wind speed upto to 170-180 kmph gusting to 195 kmph would prevail along & off north Andhra Pradesh (East Godavari, Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram and Srikakulam districts) 80-90 kmph along and off adjoining districts of Andhra Pradesh (West Godavari & Krishna districts) and south Odisha (Ganjam, Gajapati, Koraput and Malkangiri districts).

Sea condition along and off north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coasts: Sea condition would be phenomenal along & off north Andhra Pradesh coast and high along & off south Odisha and south Andhra Pradesh coast during next 24 hours.

Storm surge warning: Storm surge of about 1-2 meters above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of Visakhapatnam, Vijayanagaram and Srikakulam districts of north coastal Andhra Pradesh at the time of landfall.

Post landfall outlook: 

Even after landfall the system would maintain the intensity of very severe cyclonic storm for 6 hours and gradually weaken into a cyclonic storm in subsequent 6 hours while moving north westwards across south interior Odisha and Chattisgarh. Under its influence rainfall at most places with heavy falls at a few places would occur over south Chattisgarh, adjoining Telangana and south Odisha and isolated heavy to very heavy falls over north Chattisgarh, east Madhya Pradesh and north Odisha.


Gale wind speed reaching 100-120 kmph gusting to 130 kmph would also prevail for 6 hours after landfall and 80-90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph for subsequent 6 hours over East Godavari, Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram and Srikakulam districts of north Andhra Pradesh and Ganjam, Gajapati, Koraput and Malkangiri districts of Odisha during the same period. Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph would also prevail for next 12 hours after landfall over south Chattisgarh and adjoining districts of north Telangana and south Odisha.

HUDHUD Update: Our prayers with the affected in AP

Our prayers and good wishes are with all friends in Visakhapatnam and other areas in North Andhra Pradesh who are now fighting with HUDHUD.  Wind flowing at more than 180 kmph and heavy rainfall is already lashing these areas and lot of damages to houses and other infrastructure is already being reported.  Trees are getting uprooted.  The poor people, livestock and wild life must facing the toughest time.  

The current situation is supposed to prevail for about six hours.  In fact, the wind speed is supposed to increase more, going upto 195 kmph.

Take care and stay prepared.

Ranjan Panda and all at Water Initiatives Odisha & Mahanadi River Waterkeeper

Saturday, October 11, 2014

HUDHUD kills two persons in AP after landfall.

HUDHUD kills two persons in Andhra Pradesh after landfall

HUHUD makes landfall at Visakhapatnam at 11.25 AM

HUDHUD makes landfall at Visakhapatnam with a wind speed of 180 kmph. It may increase to 195 kmph.

HUDHUD Update No.10 from WIO – 9 AM, 12th Oct 2014

Dear Friends/Co-sailors,

We at Water Initiatives Odisha (WIO) are keeping a constant track of HUDHUD and are trying our best to update you with the movement of the cyclonic storm and probable effects.  This is a purely voluntary effort and we request you to please send to us whatever information and update that you may be having so that we can share it among our contacts and groups.  

Our update is now reaching to about 10 thousand people starting from affected areas to the global community who are concerned with this disaster.

Let’s stay watchful and prepared. 

Thanks and regards,
Ranjan Panda


At 8 AM: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘HUDHUD’ over Bay of Bengal is said to be laying centered at a distance of about 100 kms from Visakhapatnam in Andhra Pradesh and 240 kms from Gopalpurpur in Odisha.

The IMD bulletin at 02.30 HRS IST on 12th Oct 2014 is as follows:

According to latest observations, the Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘HUDHUD’ over west central Bay of Bengal moved slightly north-north westwards with a speed of about 6 kmph during the last 06 hours and lay centered at 2330 hrs IST of 11th October 2014 near latitude 16.4ºN and longitude 84.7ºE, about 210 km southeast of Visakhapatnam and 320 km south of Gopalpur. The system would move north westwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh coast close to Visakhapatnam around noon of today, the 12th October 2014.

Heavy rainfall warning: Under the influence of the system, rainfall at most places with heavy (6.5 – 12.4 cm) to very heavy falls (12.5 – 24.4 cm) at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥ 24.5 cm) would occur over west & east Godavari, Visakhapatnam, Vijayanagaram & Srikakulam districts of north Andhra Pradesh and Ganjam, Gajapati, Koraput, Rayagada, Nabarangpur, Malkangiri, Kalahandi, Phulbani districts of south Odisha during next 48 hrs. Rainfall would occur at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Krishna, Guntur & Prakasham districts of Andhra Pradesh and north coastal Odisha during the same period.

Wind warning: Wind speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph would prevail along & off north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coasts during next 06 hrs. The wind speed would gradually increase to 170-180 kmph gusting to 195 kmph around the time of landfall along & off north Andhra Pradesh (East Godavari, Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram and Srikakulam districts) and 80-90 kmph along and off adjoining districts of Andhra Pradesh (West Godavari & Krishna districts) and south Odisha (Ganjam, Gajapati, Koraput and Malkangiri districts).

Sea condition along and off north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coasts: Sea condition would be rough to very rough during next 06 hrs. It would gradually become phenomenal from today, the 12th morning onwards along & off north Andhra Pradesh coast and very rough to high along & off south Odisha and south Andhra Pradesh coast.

Storm surge warning: Storm surge of about 1-2 meters above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of Visakhapatnam, Vijayanagaram and Srikakulam districts of north coastal Andhra Pradesh at the time of landfall.

Our previous three updates which could not be sent to all the lists are as follows:

8 PM, 11 Oct 2014 – Do’s and Don’t during cyclones http://climatecrusaders.blogspot.in/2014/10/cyclone-hudhud-update-dos-and-dont.html

9 PM, 11 Oct 2014 – Zero casualty formula fails. A child dies in Kendrapada due to panic evacuation http://climatecrusaders.blogspot.in/2014/10/hudhud-update-zero-casualty-formula.html

11 PM, 11 Oct 2014 – Emergency Contact Numbers in Odisha, AP and Delhi during HUDHUD http://climatecrusaders.blogspot.in/2014/10/cyclone-hudhud-update-emergency-contact.html

Cyclone’s new Geography:

This time Cyclone HUDHUD is going to affect areas which had never been affected by such storms and hence are finding it very difficult to understand the impacts.  Evacuating them therefore is proving to be a daunting task. 

The Odisha government has claimed that it has already evacuated 43000 people from the areas expected to be impacted by HUDHUD.  This includes 1178 people from the primitive and endangered Bonda tribe in the Bonda hills in Malkangiri district.  Bonda ghati is going to face the
The South Odisha districts are bracing for the most horrifying experience in their life time, if projections of wind and rain come true.  Cyclone is new to them and hence coping mechanism for both them and the government is proving to be daunting.  The hills, with scant facilities available there, are therefore are going to face a Himalayan problem due to HUDHUD. 

Issues that need to be watched out seriously:

Mahanadi will swell and we may have huge floods in the river system.  Hirakud dam’s reservoir capacity has been reduced by opening 10 gates (15 gates had been opened earlier).  However, this may not prove sufficient to control floods if the rains get heavy upstream at Chhatisgarh and if the tributaries downstream also bring heavy inflow.  Kalahandi, Nuapada and Bolangir may also be affected according to some predictions.

Bansadhara, Nagabali and Rushikulya will flood heavily.

High speed wind with heavy to very heavy rainfall will put many denuded hills in South Odisha in a dangerous situation.  We have to watch out for landslides, heavy siltation and washing away of downstream villages.

Hydropower dams in the hilly areas of South Odisha are in a vulnerable condition.  Hope an Uttarakhand is not repeated there.

A moderate rainfall over Kalahandi, Nuapada and Balangir may be good for the standing crops.  However, if it gets heavy with high winds then these areas will suffer huge crop loss.  In all other affected places, we are expecting huge crop loss.

Areas in the Odisha coasts which are already facing sea inundation are in a dire state.  In regions like Satabhaya, people are fighting against a rising sea for decades and these storms are making their life further worse. 

In various places of the coastal districts people are still not prepared to leave their homes as they have faced immense misery earlier and the rehabilitation has never been proper.  Some fisherfolk communities in coastal Odisha as well as coastal AP are still not ready to leave their boats, nets and homes. 

In western Odisha, farmers who are still fighting to get the promised support from government against the crop loss during Phailin a year back, are going to be affected again.


Despite of early predictions, the government delayed the evacuation process in both coastal and Southern Odisha. 

Cyclone HUDHUD Update: Emergency Contact Numbers

Odisha govt.’s state emergency operation centre number: 0674 -2534177 

Other numbers for Odisha can be found at the following link: http://www.odisha.gov.in/disaster/src/Contact_No.pdf

Central Electricity Supply Utility (CESU) Odisha (Disaster Response Cell)

Name of Officers                 Telephone No               Mobile No
Central Control Room        0674-2544121
Sri P.K.Padhy, GM(ABT)  0674-2544125               9438676810
Sri S.S. Dash, DGM(Tech) 0674-2540824               9937008165
Sri L.K. Das, AGM (ABT) 0674-2544125               9437851632

Southco Control Room Numbers (as obtained from TV channels):

9437570294 and 9437480026

Railway related numbers:

In view of Cancellation & diversion of trains due to cyclone, East Coast Railway has made special arrangement for opening of Passenger Reservation System (PRS) Counters till 2200hrs (10.00P.M.) instead of 1400hrs (02.00P.M.) on 12thOctober 2014 (Sunday) at important Stations in order to help the passengers in getting refund.

Additional Enquiry Counters have also been opened at Cuttack, Bhubaneswar, Brahmapur and Puri Stations for the benefit of the passengers.

STATIONS                            HELPLINE NUMBERS
CUTTACK                             0671-2510131
BHUBANESWAR                 0674-2532233
PURI                                      06752-226717
BRAHMAPUR                     0680-2229633

Andhra Pradesh:

A control room has started functioning in Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh adjoining South Odisha. The phone numbers are 1800-425-6625, 0894-2225361 and 9652838191.

Control Room at Delhi:


National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) Control Room No. 011-26107953. Additional battalions are being considered for deployment in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha

HUDHUD Update: Zero casualty formula fails - child dies due to panic evacuation

Zero casualty formula fails. A child dies in Kendrapada district due to panic evacuation.

Yesterday only I had said the government must not have delayed the evacuation process.

7 years old Puja Mallick of Satabhaya area dies in boat of Forest Department which was ferrying people across Baunsagada river in Bhitarkanika area. NDRF was helping rescue by this boat.  Another boy Hemant Mallick (13 years) is missing. There was no life jacket in the boat.  All who could swim saved themselves.  Ironically, the Tehsildar and Sarpanch were also in the boat.

Cyclone HUDHUD Update: Do's and Don't during Cyclones (IMD)

Do's and Don't during Cyclones
·         Print
DOs
·         Check houses, secure loose tiles by cementing wherever necessary, repair doors and windows.
·         Check the area around the house. Remove dead or dying trees, anchor removable objects like lumber piles, loose bricks, garbage cans, sign-boards, loose zinc sheets etc.
·         Keep some wooden boards ready so that glass windows can be boarded.
·         If you do not have wooden boards handy, paste paper strips on glasses to prevent splinters flying into the house.
·         Keep a hurricane Lantern filled with kerosene, flash light and enough dry cells and keep them handy.
·         Promptly demolish condemned buildings.
·         Those who have radio sets should ensure that the radio is fully serviceable. In the case of transistors an extra set of batteries should be kept handy.
·         Keep your radio on and listen to latest weather warnings and advisories from the nearest AIR station. Pass the information to others.
·         Pass only the official information you have got from the radio to others.
·         Get away from low lying beaches or other locations which may be swept by high tides or storm waves. Leave sufficiently early before your way to high ground gets flooded. Do not delay and run the risk of being marooned.
·         If your house is out of danger from high tides and flooding from the river, and it is well built, it is then probably the best place. However, please act promptly if asked to evacuate.
·         Be alert for high water in areas where streams of rivers may flood due to heavy rains.
·         Get extra food, especially things which can be eaten without cooking or with very little preparation. Store extra drinking water in suitably covered vessel.
·         If you are in one of the evacuation areas, move your valuable articles to upper floors to minimise flood damage
·         Check on everything that might blow away or be torn loose. Kerosene tins, cans, agricultural implements, garden tools, road signs and other objects become weapon of destruction in strong winds. Remove them and store them in a covered room.
·         Be sure that a window or door can be opened on the lee side of the house i.e. the side opposite the one facing the wind.
·         Make provisions for children and adults requiring special diets.
·         If the centre of' ‘eye' of the storm passes directly over your place, there will be a lull in the wind and rain, lasting for half an hour or more. During this period stay in safe place. Make emergency repairs during the lull period if necessary, but remember that strong wind will return suddenly from the opposite direction, frequently with even greater violence.
·         Be calm. Your ability to meet emergency will inspire and help others.
·         You should remain in shelters until informed by those in charge that you may return home.
·         Any loose and dangling wire from the lamp post should be strictly avoided.
·         People should keep away from disaster areas unless you are required to assist.
·         Anti-social elements should be prevented from doing mischief and reported to the police.
·         Cars, buses, lorries and carts should be driven carefully.
·         The houses and dwellings should be cleared of debris
·         The losses should be reported to the appropriate authorities.
·         Relatives should be promptly informed about the safety of persons in the disaster area.
Don’ts
·         Avoid being misled by rumours.
·         Don’t leave shelters until informed by the rescue personals.
·         Don’t leave the safer place during lull, however minor repairs can be carried out.

·         Don’t touch the loose and dangling wire from lamp post, it may have electric current.

Cyclone HUDHUD over Bay of Bengal - Latest Update @16.30 IST, 11th October 2014






According to latest observations, the Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘HUDHUD’ over west central Bay of Bengal moved west-north westwards during past six hours and lay centered at 1430 hrs IST of 11th October 2014 near latitude 16.1ºN and longitude 85.0ºE, about 250 km southeast of Visakhapatnam and 340 km south southeast of Gopalpur. The system would move north westwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh coast around Visakhapatnam by the forenoon of 12th October 2014.
Heavy rainfall warning: Under the influence of the system, rainfall at most places with heavy (6.5 – 12.4 cm) to very heavy falls (12.5 – 24.4 cm) at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥ 24.5 cm) would occur over west & east Godavari, Visakhapatnam, Vijayanagaram & Srikakulam districts of north Andhra Pradesh and Ganjam, Gajapati, Koraput, Rayagada, Nabarangpur, Malkangiri, Kalahandi, Phulbani districts of south Odisha during next 48 hrs. Rainfall would occur at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Krishna, Guntur & Prakasham districts of Andhra Pradesh and north coastal Odisha during the same period.

Wind warning: Squally wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph would prevail along & off north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coasts during next 12 hrs. The wind speed would gradually increase to 170-180 kmph gusting to 195 kmph around the time of landfall along & off north Andhra Pradesh (East Godavari, Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram and Srikakulam districts) and 80-90 kmph along and off adjoining districts of south Andhra Pradesh (West Godavari, Krishna districts) and south Odisha (Ganjam, Gajapati, Koraput and Malkangiri districts).

Sea condition along and off north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coasts: Sea condition would be rough to very rough during next 12 hrs. It would gradually become phenomenal from 12th morning onwards along & off north Andhra Pradesh coast and very rough to high along & off south Odisha and south Andhra Pradesh coast.


Storm surge warning: Storm surge of about 1-2 meters above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of Visakhapatnam, Vijayanagaram and Srikakulam districts of north coastal Andhra Pradesh at the time of landfall.
(IMD)



Friday, October 10, 2014

Cyclone HUDHUD over Bay of Bengal - Latest Update @ 8.30 IST, 11th October 2014

The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘HUDHUD’ is now lying within the range of Doppler Weather Radar, Visakhapatnam. Hence it is being tracked by Visakhapatnam Radar since early morning of today in addition to satellite and other observational tools.

According to latest observations, the Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘HUDHUD’ over west central Bay of Bengal moved west north westwards during past six hours and lay centered at 0530 hrs IST of 11th October 2014 near latitude 15.9ºN and longitude 85.7ºE about 330 km southeast of Visakhapatnam and 380 km south-southeast of Gopalpur. The system would move west-north westwards for some more time. It would then move north westwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh coast around Visakhapatnam by the forenoon of 12th October 2014.

Heavy rainfall warning: Under the influence of the system, rainfall at most places with heavy (6.5 – 12.4 cm) to very heavy falls (12.5 – 24.4 cm) at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥ 24.5 cm) would occur over west & east Godavari, Visakhapatnam, Vijayanagaram & Srikakulam districts of north Andhra Pradesh and Ganjam, Gajapati, Koraput, Rayagada, Nabarangpur, Malkangiri, Kalahandi, Phulbani districts of south Odisha during next 48 hrs. Rainfall would occur at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Krishna, Guntur & Prakasham districts of Andhra Pradesh and north coastal Odisha during the same period.

Wind warning: Squally wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph would prevail along & off north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coasts during next 12 hrs. The wind speed would gradually increase to 140-150 kmph gusting to 165 kmph around the time of landfall along & off north Andhra Pradesh (East Godavari, Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram and Srikakulam districts) and 80-90 kmph along and off adjoining districts of south Andhra Pradesh (West Godavari, Krishna districts) and south Odisha (Ganjam, Gajapati, Koraput and Malkangiri districts).

Sea condition along and off north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coasts: Sea condition would be rough to very rough during next 12 hrs. It would gradually become phenomenal from 12th morning onwards along & off north Andhra Pradesh coast and veryrough to high along & off south Odisha and south Andhra Pradesh coast.

Storm surge warning: Storm surge of about 1-2 meters above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of Visakhapatnam, Vijayanagaram and Srikakulam districts of north coastal Andhra Pradesh at the time of landfall.


(IMD)

Cyclone HUDHUD over Bay of Bengal - Latest Update @ 16.30 IST, 10th October 2014

The Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘HUDHUD’ over west central Bay of Bengal moved north westwards and intensified into a very severe cyclonic storm. It lay centered at 1430 hrs IST of 10th October 2014 near latitude 15.0ºN and longitude 86.8ºE about 470 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam and 520 km south-southeast of Gopalpur. The system would move west-north westwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh coast around Visakhapatnam by the forenoon of 12th October 2014.

Heavy rainfall warning: Under the influence of the system, rainfall at most places with heavy (6.5 – 12.4 cm) to very heavy falls (12.5 – 24.4 cm) at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥ 24.5 cm) would occur over west and east Godavari, Visakhapatnam, Vijayanagaram and Srikakulam districts of north Andhra Pradesh and Ganjam, Gajapati, Koraput, Rayagada, Nabarangpur, Malkangiri, Kalahandi, Phulbani districts of south Odisha commencing from 11th onwards. Rainfall would occur at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Krishna, Guntur and Prakasham districts of Andhra Pradesh and north coastal Odisha during the same period.

Wind warning: Squally wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph would commence along and off north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coasts from 11th morning onwards. The wind speed would gradually increase to 130-140 kmph gusting to 155 kmph from 12th morning along and off north Andhra Pradesh (East Godavari, Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram and Srikakulam districts) and 80-90 kmph along and off adjoining districts of south Andhra Pradesh (West Godavari, Krishna districts) and south Odisha (Ganjam, Gajapati, Koraput and Malkangiri districts).

Sea condition along and off north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coasts: Sea condition would be rough to very rough from 11th morning. It would gradually become phenomenal from 12th morning onwards along and off north Andhra Pradesh coast and very rough to high along and off south Odisha coast.


Storm surge warning: Storm surge of about 1-2 meters above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of Visakhapatnam, Vijayanagaram and Srikakulam districts of north coastal Andhra Pradesh at the time of landfall.
(IMD)

Cyclone HUDHUD Update: I shall be in live TV discussion tonite @ 9 pm

Cyclone HUDHUD Update:

Tonite @ 9 pm, I shall be in a live discussion during news prime time of the Z Kalinga channel (Odia). Time permitting, please watch. Thanks.

Thursday, October 9, 2014

Update on Cyclone HUDHUD at 7.30 PM IST 9th Oct 2014

The Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘HUDHUD’ over east central Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestward and lay centered at 1730 hrs IST of 9th October 2014 over west central and adjoining east central Bay near latitude 14.1ºN and longitude 88.4ºE about 675 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam and 685 km southeast of Gopalpur. The system would continue to move west-northwestwards, intensify further into a very severe cyclonic storm during next 12 hours. The system would cross north Andhra Pradesh coast around Visakhapatnam by the forenoon of 12th October 2014.(IMD)

Even though predictions at the moment say impacts will be less, four coastal districts will still be affected. The are Ganjam, Gajapati, Puri and Khurda.  Heavy rainfall is predicted tomorrow.


Wish we had a better prediction system.  The state government is not yet clear where to send the ODRAF and other teams...