Friday, October 11, 2013

PHAILIN Cyclone Update @ 11.30 PM IST - 11th October 2013

The very severe cyclonic storm, PHAILIN over west central and adjoining east central Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestwards and lay centred at 2030 hrs IST of 11th October 2013 over west central and adjoining east central Bay of Bengal near latitude 16.90N and longitude 87.20E, about 380 km south-southeast of Paradip, 360 km southeast of Gopalpur, and 360 km east-southeast of Kalingapatnam. It would move northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts between Kalingapatnam and Paradip, close to Gopalpur (Odisha) by evening of 12th October, 2013 as a very severe cyclonic storm with a maximum sustained wind speed of 210-220 kmph.

(i)Rainfall at many places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥ 25 cm) would occur over coastal Odisha during next 48 hrs and over interior Odisha from tomorrow afternoon for subsequent 48 hrs. Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would also occur over north coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 48 hrs. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over coastal areas of West Bengal commencing from afternoon of 12th October for subsequent 48 hrs.

(ii)Gale wind: Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would continue along and off Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coast during next 12 hrs. It would increase in intensity thereafter with gale wind speed reaching 100-150 kmph from forenoon and 210-220 kmph along and off coastal districts of north coastal Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha at the time of landfall. State of Sea along and off Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coast is rough to very rough and will become gradually phenomenal on 12th October 2013. It will be rough to very rough along and off West Bengal coast during the above period.

(iii)Storm Surge Guidance: Storm surge with height of 3.0 to 3.5 mt. above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha and Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh during landfall.

(iv)Damage expected over Odisha and adjoining north Andhra Pradesh: Extensive damage to kutcha houses. Some damage to old buildings. Large scale disruption of power and communication lines. Disruption of rail and road traffic due to extensive flooding. Potential threat from flying debris. Flooding of escape routes. Extensive damage to agricultural crops.(v)Action suggested: Fishermen out at sea along north Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal coast are advised to return to coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea. Total suspension of fishing operations. Mobilise evacuation from coastal areas. Judicious regulation of rail and road traffic. People in affected areas to remain indoors during cyclone landfall.


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