Friday, October 11, 2013

PHAILIN Cyclone Update @ 08.00 AM on 12th October 2013

(Latest image of PHAILIN at Cyclone Tracker @ 10.00 AM, 12th October 2013)

The very severe cyclonic storm, PHAILIN over westcentral & adjoining eastcentral Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards during past 6 hours with a speed of 15 kmph and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 12thth October 2013 over westcentral and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 17.50 0 N and longitude 86.50 0 E, about 260 km southeast of Gopalpur, 270 km east-southeast of Kalingapatnam and 310 km south-southeast of Paradip. It would move northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts between Kalingapatnam and Paradip, close to Gopalpur (Odisha) by evening of today i.e. the 12thth October, 2013 as a very severe cyclonic storm with a maximum sustained wind speed of 210-220 kmph gusting to 240 kmph.

Warning for Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal 

(i)Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥ 25 cm) would occur over coastal Odisha during next 48 hrs and over interior Odisha from today afternoon for subsequent 48 hrs. Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would also occur over north coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 48 hrs. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over coastal areas of West Bengal commencing from afternoon of today i.e. the 12thth October.

(ii)Gale wind: Gale winds speed reaching 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph would prevail along and off Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 6 hours. It would increase in intensity thereafter with gale wind speed reaching 100-150 kmph from noon and 210-220 kmph gusting to 235 along and off coastal districts of north coastal Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha at the time of landfall. State of Sea along and off Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coast is high and will become gradually phenomenal from forenoon of today. It will be rough to very rough along and off West Bengal coast during the above period.

(iii)Storm Surge Guidance: Storm surge with height of 3.0 to 3.5 metre. above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha and Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh during landfall.

(iv)Damage expected over Odisha and adjoining north Andhra Pradesh: Extensive damage to kutcha houses. Some damage to old buildings. Large scale disruption of power and communication lines. Disruption of rail and road traffic due to extensive flooding. Potential threat from flying debris.  Flooding of escape routes. Extensive damage to agricultural crops.

(v) Action suggested: Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea along north Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal coast. Total suspension of fishing operations. Large scale evacuation of population from coastal areas. Total suspension of rail and road traffic in vulnerable areas . People in affected areas to remain indoors.

Post landfall outlook: Even after landfall the system is likely to maintain the intensity of very cyclonic storm for 6 hours and gradually weaken into a cyclonic storm in subsequent 6 hours while moving northwestwards across interior Odisha. Under its influence rainfall at most places with heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls at isolated places would occur over Odisha. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would also occur over north coastal Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and south Jharkhand. Squally wind speed reaching 100-120 kmph would also prevail for 6 hours and 60-70 for subsequent 6 hours over Odisha during the same period.

Now, this is a RED MESSAGE from the IMD.  And as our members report from various districts, rainfall and wind have already started in several parts of the coastal districts.  We just got information that power supply has been cut in Cuttack already.  That is supposed to be a situation when air blows at more than 50 kmph speed.  

Please take care and help people get evacuated.  Help the administration and other civil society groups and all of them who are engaged in evacuation of people from coast and low lying areas.  We have already circulated to you numbers of all district authorities responsible 


Ranjan Panda

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