Saturday, October 11, 2014

HUDHUD Update No.10 from WIO – 9 AM, 12th Oct 2014

Dear Friends/Co-sailors,

We at Water Initiatives Odisha (WIO) are keeping a constant track of HUDHUD and are trying our best to update you with the movement of the cyclonic storm and probable effects.  This is a purely voluntary effort and we request you to please send to us whatever information and update that you may be having so that we can share it among our contacts and groups.  

Our update is now reaching to about 10 thousand people starting from affected areas to the global community who are concerned with this disaster.

Let’s stay watchful and prepared. 

Thanks and regards,
Ranjan Panda

At 8 AM: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘HUDHUD’ over Bay of Bengal is said to be laying centered at a distance of about 100 kms from Visakhapatnam in Andhra Pradesh and 240 kms from Gopalpurpur in Odisha.

The IMD bulletin at 02.30 HRS IST on 12th Oct 2014 is as follows:

According to latest observations, the Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘HUDHUD’ over west central Bay of Bengal moved slightly north-north westwards with a speed of about 6 kmph during the last 06 hours and lay centered at 2330 hrs IST of 11th October 2014 near latitude 16.4ºN and longitude 84.7ºE, about 210 km southeast of Visakhapatnam and 320 km south of Gopalpur. The system would move north westwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh coast close to Visakhapatnam around noon of today, the 12th October 2014.

Heavy rainfall warning: Under the influence of the system, rainfall at most places with heavy (6.5 – 12.4 cm) to very heavy falls (12.5 – 24.4 cm) at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥ 24.5 cm) would occur over west & east Godavari, Visakhapatnam, Vijayanagaram & Srikakulam districts of north Andhra Pradesh and Ganjam, Gajapati, Koraput, Rayagada, Nabarangpur, Malkangiri, Kalahandi, Phulbani districts of south Odisha during next 48 hrs. Rainfall would occur at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Krishna, Guntur & Prakasham districts of Andhra Pradesh and north coastal Odisha during the same period.

Wind warning: Wind speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph would prevail along & off north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coasts during next 06 hrs. The wind speed would gradually increase to 170-180 kmph gusting to 195 kmph around the time of landfall along & off north Andhra Pradesh (East Godavari, Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram and Srikakulam districts) and 80-90 kmph along and off adjoining districts of Andhra Pradesh (West Godavari & Krishna districts) and south Odisha (Ganjam, Gajapati, Koraput and Malkangiri districts).

Sea condition along and off north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coasts: Sea condition would be rough to very rough during next 06 hrs. It would gradually become phenomenal from today, the 12th morning onwards along & off north Andhra Pradesh coast and very rough to high along & off south Odisha and south Andhra Pradesh coast.

Storm surge warning: Storm surge of about 1-2 meters above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of Visakhapatnam, Vijayanagaram and Srikakulam districts of north coastal Andhra Pradesh at the time of landfall.

Our previous three updates which could not be sent to all the lists are as follows:

8 PM, 11 Oct 2014 – Do’s and Don’t during cyclones

9 PM, 11 Oct 2014 – Zero casualty formula fails. A child dies in Kendrapada due to panic evacuation

11 PM, 11 Oct 2014 – Emergency Contact Numbers in Odisha, AP and Delhi during HUDHUD

Cyclone’s new Geography:

This time Cyclone HUDHUD is going to affect areas which had never been affected by such storms and hence are finding it very difficult to understand the impacts.  Evacuating them therefore is proving to be a daunting task. 

The Odisha government has claimed that it has already evacuated 43000 people from the areas expected to be impacted by HUDHUD.  This includes 1178 people from the primitive and endangered Bonda tribe in the Bonda hills in Malkangiri district.  Bonda ghati is going to face the
The South Odisha districts are bracing for the most horrifying experience in their life time, if projections of wind and rain come true.  Cyclone is new to them and hence coping mechanism for both them and the government is proving to be daunting.  The hills, with scant facilities available there, are therefore are going to face a Himalayan problem due to HUDHUD. 

Issues that need to be watched out seriously:

Mahanadi will swell and we may have huge floods in the river system.  Hirakud dam’s reservoir capacity has been reduced by opening 10 gates (15 gates had been opened earlier).  However, this may not prove sufficient to control floods if the rains get heavy upstream at Chhatisgarh and if the tributaries downstream also bring heavy inflow.  Kalahandi, Nuapada and Bolangir may also be affected according to some predictions.

Bansadhara, Nagabali and Rushikulya will flood heavily.

High speed wind with heavy to very heavy rainfall will put many denuded hills in South Odisha in a dangerous situation.  We have to watch out for landslides, heavy siltation and washing away of downstream villages.

Hydropower dams in the hilly areas of South Odisha are in a vulnerable condition.  Hope an Uttarakhand is not repeated there.

A moderate rainfall over Kalahandi, Nuapada and Balangir may be good for the standing crops.  However, if it gets heavy with high winds then these areas will suffer huge crop loss.  In all other affected places, we are expecting huge crop loss.

Areas in the Odisha coasts which are already facing sea inundation are in a dire state.  In regions like Satabhaya, people are fighting against a rising sea for decades and these storms are making their life further worse. 

In various places of the coastal districts people are still not prepared to leave their homes as they have faced immense misery earlier and the rehabilitation has never been proper.  Some fisherfolk communities in coastal Odisha as well as coastal AP are still not ready to leave their boats, nets and homes. 

In western Odisha, farmers who are still fighting to get the promised support from government against the crop loss during Phailin a year back, are going to be affected again.

Despite of early predictions, the government delayed the evacuation process in both coastal and Southern Odisha. 

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