India needs better rainfall predictions: Ranjan Panda

As the monsoon season gets over, the debate over monsoon predictions get louder.  This time the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had forecast a normal monsoon, predicting a 97 percent rainfall (countrywide) of the long period average (LPA).  The monsoon season however ended, on 30^th June, with a 9.4 percent deficit of this projection, making the IMD forecast off more than 4 percent margin of error. 

This also means, the projection of ‘normal monsoon’ did not come out true as the monsoon ended up being ‘below normal’.  Less than 10 percent of LPA is considered ‘deficient.’  This year’s monsoon has been almost a ‘deficient’ one.  It is argued that private weather forecast agencies such as SkyMet have been more accurate this time on certain counts.   http://bit.ly/2O0i3YT

We certainly need more accurate rainfall projections so that farmers can adapt to the variations.  IMD’s region wise projections have come up more accurate than others.  However, that does not really mean that farmers benefit a lot.  Take for example the crop failure and insurance claims against that.  The farmers are still at mercy of an ineffective system of monitoring, that deprives them of their genuine claims. India has miles to go on this.

Ranjan Panda

Convenor, Combat Climate Change Network, India

Email: ranjanpanda@gmail.com

Skype: ranjan.climatecrusader

Tweets @ranjanpanda

Tweets @MahanadiRiver