India needs better rainfall predictions: Ranjan Panda

As the monsoon season gets over, the debate over monsoon predictions get louder.  This time the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had forecast a normal monsoon, predicting a 97 percent rainfall (countrywide) of the long period average (LPA).  The monsoon season however ended, on 30^th June, with a 9.4 percent deficit of this projection, making the IMD forecast off more than 4 percent margin of error. 

This also means, the projection of ‘normal monsoon’ did not come out true as the monsoon ended up being ‘below normal’.  Less than 10 percent of LPA is considered ‘deficient.’  This year’s monsoon has been almost a ‘deficient’ one.  It is argued that private weather forecast agencies such as SkyMet have been more accurate this time on certain counts.   http://bit.ly/2O0i3YT

We certainly need more accurate rainfall projections so that farmers can adapt to the variations.  IMD’s region wise projections have come up more accurate than others.  However, that does not really mean that farmers benefit a lot.  Take for example the crop failure and insurance claims against that.  The farmers are still at mercy of an ineffective system of monitoring, that deprives them of their genuine claims. India has miles to go on this.

Ranjan Panda

Convenor, Combat Climate Change Network, India

Email: ranjanpanda@gmail.com

Skype: ranjan.climatecrusader

Tweets @ranjanpanda

Tweets @MahanadiRiver  

Average monsoon rainfall figures are of not much use! Climate change concerns remain: Ranjan Panda

It is being said that the Indian Meteorological Department’s (IMD) predictions of a normal monsoon for 2018 may prove almost true.  It was being feared that a possibility of El Nino event developing in the second half of the season would bring a deficit monsoon.  However, the southwest monsoon has turned out to be a reasonably good one so far, as being reported.

The Indian Express on 23^rd August (See the link at the end) reported that the country as a whole has, as on August 22, cumulatively received an area-weighted average rainfall of 605 mm during the current monsoon season from June 1. This is only 6.5 per cent below the historical long period average of 647.3 mm, which is well within the “normal” departure range of 10 per cent on either side.

IMD’s predictions are being considered right for this year looking into the average rainfall figures.  The Indian Express report says, “Moreover, as the accompanying table shows, the rains have been normal in all the three months of the season so far, making it as good a monsoon as in 2016 and 2017. Also, much of the country — barring Bihar, Jharkhand and the North-East states — received enough rains for farmers to take up kharif sowing operations. Some areas such as Marathwada, North Karnataka, Saurashtra-Kutch and North Gujarat have experienced dry spells, affecting crop growth at the vegetative growth phase, but the situation is nowhere as serious as it was during the drought years of 2014 and 2015”.

(Table Source: Indian Express, 23 Aug 2018)

However, it will not be good to be happy with such general average projections.  Actually the so called normal rainfall year is no more capable to provide the much needed support to our farmers as because the erratic nature of rainfall does a lot of damages that we don't take into account. The small and marginal farmers suffer most!

Extreme precipitation events have increased and there is rains have done heavy damages to the kharif crops in many parts.  That’s another dimension which needs to be taken care of while planning our crops.  Time has come to decentralise rainfall projections as well as related crop plans.  Climate change is already affecting small and marginal farmers the most, the impacts will aggravate.

Link to the Indian Express article: https://indianexpress.com/article/india/southwest-monsoon-el-nino-indian-monsoon-lok-sabha-elections-kharif-crop-farmers-5319978/

Ranjan Panda

Convenor, Combat Climate Change Network, India

Email: ranjanpanda@gmail.com

Tweet @ranjanpanda

Tweet @MahanadiRiver