Indigenous Communities and Natural Solutions key to achieve
1.5 Deg C target: My quick response to IPCC SR15 – Ranjan Panda
Just released: The much awaited IPCC report on climate
projections at 1.5ºC level as against the previous estimations that had been
done keeping in view the 2ºC level.
The report, known as The Special Report on Global Warming of
1.5 ºC or SR15, highlights a number of climate change impacts that could be
avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5ºC compared to 2ºC, or more. For
instance, by 2100, global sea level rise would be 10 cm lower with global
warming of 1.5°C compared with 2°C. The likelihood of an Arctic Ocean free of
sea ice in summer would be once per century with global warming of 1.5°C,
compared with at least once per decade with 2°C. Coral reefs would decline by
70-90 percent with global warming of 1.5°C, whereas virtually all (> 99
percent) would be lost with 2ºC.
“In model pathways with no or limited overshoot of 1.5°C, global net anthropogenic CO2 emissions decline by about 45% from 2010 levels by 2030”
The three years of research, referring more than 6000
scientific studies, had to face challenges to get through the brains of policy
makers during a week long discussion that was held at Incheon, Republic of Korea,
last week. The scientists reportedly
tried to push their points with regard to devastating impacts that we are
already facing throughout the globe due to increased global warming, but the
government representatives tried to hard sell their views on how it was
important to go ahead with the current model of economic progress and living
standards even if it meant a compromise on vital issues such as ecology.
The Summary for Policymakers has been able to survive the
policy makers’ challenges, even though some compromises might have been
inevitable, suggest reports. It is now clear that the world is heading towards
a catastrophic global warming level of 3ºC if business as usual continues. The IPCC has said, “Limiting global warming
to 1.5ºC would require rapid, far reaching and unprecedented changes in all
aspects of society. With clear benefits to people and natural ecosystems,
limiting global warming to 1.5ºC compared to 2ºC could go hand in hand with
ensuring a more sustainable and equitable society.”
The report finds that limiting global warming to 1.5°C would
require “rapid and far-reaching” transitions in land, energy, industry,
buildings, transport, and cities. Global net human-caused emissions of carbon
dioxide (CO2) would need to fall by about 45 percent from 2010 levels by 2030,
reaching ‘net zero’ around 2050. This means that any remaining emissions would
need to be balanced by removing CO2 from the air.
My take -
According to me, IPCC has tried to make a balanced view (in
the summary for policy makers) on several alarming aspects even though it
needed to be bolder. Still, the message
is clear. Global warming cannot be
ignored any further, despite of the USA pressure and deliberate ignorance, and
that the real solutions needs to be emphasised upon more forcefully than ever
before. Many efforts to limit global warming are underway and there are many
positives, as the IPCC mentions.
However, the fight against climate change needs to integrate the role of
ecosystems and local indigenous communities in much solid ways than at
present.
The IPCC report says, “Allowing the global temperature to
temporarily exceed or ‘overshoot’ 1.5ºC would mean a greater reliance on
techniques that remove CO2 from the air to return global temperature to below
1.5ºC by 2100. The effectiveness of such techniques are unproven at large scale
and some may carry significant risks for sustainable development.”
I have been maintaining for quite some time now that Nature
is the primary, original and supreme technology. All other man-made technologies can cater
only to some aspects of the fight against global warming. However, working with natural solutions would
be the first and foremost requirement if we want to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
And when we talk about natural solutions, the role of local
and indigenous communities is key. All
across the world these communities have proven to be the best stewards of the
local natural resources and have shown real ‘carbon neutral pathways’ in their
socio-cultural and economic practices.
What the governments now need is to seriously integrate their knowledge,
wisdom, practices and institutions in plans to fight against climate change.
For that, their customary and other rights (provided under
laws of the land) need to be recognised over the local resources and all
possible safeguards be provided to them against the powerful people&
corporates who are destroying our natural forests, rivers, mountains and all
other natural resources. Many activists
are being subject to harassment, abuse and even death during their fight to
save their local natural resources.
If we are serious about science in the IPCC report, then we
have to be serious about the supreme science that is Nature. Nature and nature alone can save us from the
climate onslaught. And local indigenous
communities can lead us in this fight.
They have proven it. Now we need
to support them.
(We will write more pieces on this report http://bit.ly/2y2DnTx later).
===
Ranjan Panda
Convenor, Combat Climate Change Network, India
Email: ranjanpanda@gmail.com
Skype: ranjan.climatecrusader
Tweets @ranjanpanda
Tweets @MahanadiRiver
